Every store has them: customers who bought once or twice, seemed happy, and then went quiet. Most of them did not leave because of a bad experience. They got busy, forgot about you, or found a similar shop on a day they needed something.
A win-back campaign is a planned way to remind these customers you exist and give them a reason to return. It is usually cheaper than finding a brand new buyer, because a past customer already knows your products and has trusted you with an order before.
Step 1: Decide when a customer counts as "lapsed"
There is no universal number of days. It depends on how often people normally buy what you sell. A coffee shop's customer might reorder every month; a furniture buyer might come back once in a few years.
A simple way to find your own threshold:
Typical gap = average number of days between two orders from the same customer
Lapsed threshold = typical gap × 2 (a common starting point; adjust for your business)
Example with made-up round numbers
In this example, your repeat customers usually reorder every 45 days. Doubling that gives a lapsed threshold of 90 days. A customer whose last order was more than 90 days ago is a candidate for a win-back offer.
If you sell seasonal products, measure the gap between seasons instead of between months.
Step 2: Split lapsed customers into groups
Not all lapsed customers are worth the same effort. Recency, frequency and monetary value (the three letters in RFM analysis) help you decide how to treat each group:
- Former regulars: ordered many times, spent a lot, then stopped. These are the most valuable to win back and deserve the best offer.
- One-time buyers: ordered once and never again. A gentle reminder with a modest offer is usually enough.
- Long gone: no order for a very long time. A small share may come back; the rest may have moved on for good.
You can mark these groups with tags on customer cards so your team treats them consistently.
Step 3: Choose the offer
Win-back offers do not always have to be discounts, but a discount is the most common and easiest to measure.
- Percent discount, such as 10% off the next order.
- Fixed amount, such as 5 off an order above a minimum.
- Free delivery on the next order.
- A small gift added to the next parcel.
- News without a discount: new products, restocks of an item they bought before.
Fixed amounts are often easier to control than percentages on high-value orders. Percentages feel more generous on small orders.
Step 4: Check the margin before you launch
A win-back offer is worth it only if the returning order still makes money, or if the customer is likely to keep buying afterwards. Use a quick check:
Profit on a win-back order = order value × gross margin % − discount − delivery cost you cover
Example with made-up round numbers
Example: average order of 60, gross margin of 40%, discount of 10%.
- Gross profit before discount: 60 × 40% = 24
- Discount: 60 × 10% = 6
- Profit after discount: 18
The order still earns 18, and you have a returning customer. A 30% discount on the same order would leave only 6, which may not cover packing and delivery.
Step 5: Reach the customer
An offer that nobody sees does nothing. Common ways to reach lapsed customers:
- a short personal message through channels where the customer agreed to hear from you;
- a banner or offer that appears when they visit your store again and sign in;
- a note in the next parcel for customers who are still active, to prevent them from lapsing at all.
Keep the message short and honest: "We have not seen you for a while. Here is 10% off your next order, valid for two weeks." Respect opt-outs and your privacy policy.
Step 6: Measure the result
Write down a few numbers before you start and compare them a month later:
Win-back rate = customers who ordered again ÷ customers who were offered the win-back discount
Campaign profit = profit from win-back orders − cost of the campaign (time, gifts, messages)
Also watch what happens after the first returning order. A good campaign brings customers back for more than one purchase.
A win-back checklist
- Calculate your typical gap between orders.
- Set a lapsed threshold in days.
- Split lapsed customers into groups by value.
- Choose an offer per group and check the margin.
- Make sure your privacy policy covers using purchase history for offers.
- Decide how customers will learn about the offer.
- Set an end date for each offer.
- Measure the win-back rate and profit after a month.
How RedCart helps
RedCart has a win-back rule built into its personal discounts: "no purchase in a number of days you choose". You set the number of days and a percent or fixed reward, switch the rule on, and when a signed-in buyer matches it, the storefront shows them a banner with the offer, with no code to type. Other rules cover birthdays, lifetime spend above a threshold and an item left in the cart. If several rules match, only the one with the highest priority applies, so discounts never stack by accident.
For campaigns you announce yourself, promo codes with a start and end time work alongside the automatic rules. In the CRM, each customer card shows the customer's orders and addresses, with internal notes and tags your team can use to mark groups such as former regulars.
Summary
Define when a customer is lapsed using your own order rhythm, group lapsed customers by value, choose an offer that still leaves a margin, reach them through channels they agreed to, and measure what comes back.
If you would like to set up your first win-back rule with us, create a RedCart account.